But Joe is Doing So Good???

Reading Heather Cox Richardson's Letters from an American writing yesterday about Joe Biden's first year in office, I'd like to focus upon Why Joe Biden could be a Total Failure in 2022 and 2024.

How has Joe Biden been successful in his first year?

He's:

1.  confronted the Covid-19 crisis head-on, unlike DT,

2.  turned the economy around - significantly - including getting several significant stimulus/appropriation bills passed by Congress unlike DT

3.  stood up against denying that his election was "legitimate" - in contrast to DT

4. gotten U.S. troops out of Afghanistan, fulfilling the commitments of DT, ending the futile two decade war effort

5.  been "decent" in his words and attitude - significantly differently from DT

How have the Republican's responded?

They have successfully:

1.  fought Biden's efforts on Covid-19 -  opposing mask mandates, significantly casting doubts about the efficacy of vaccinations - while DT and some others - selectively are supporting vaccinations

2.  united against the continuation of the childcare tax credit and the potentially largest economic package to help the American people

3.  created a wedge issue of inflation, which is controllable, and a logical short-term result of the economic success,

4. continued to deny the legitimacy of the 2020 election - despite no - substantive evidence of voter fraud

5. gotten - much state government passed legislation which will help Republicans (likely) win congressional control in 2022 (and beyond), through supporting the suppression of the votes of core Democratic Party constituencies,

6. changed the public perception of the troop withdrawal - emphasizing the rapid takeover by the Taliban - so it appears like a significant failure of Joe Biden,

7. made Joe Biden appear weak and unsuccessful so that his approval ratings have dropped significantly,

8.  helped make the popular media imply that the Democrats will lose control of one or both houses of Congress in 2022 (which if successful in the House will end its investigation of January 6 and DT),

9. created a perception of reality that (likely will) result in making the passing of significant legislation in 2022, 2023, and 2024 impossible.  This could easily lead to the Republicans potentially winning the presidency in 2024 - (including, if not jailed or dead, the chance for DT to have a second term starting in 2025).

Other Relevant Things:

Joe Biden has: 

1.  publicly promised that the Democrats will pass another larger stimulus package.  This effort has failed to date,

2. clashed most clearly with Democratic Senator Joe Manchin,

3. spoken of how he would create bipartisan solutions to problems, while Republicans repeatedly unite in opposition to his legislative agenda on multiple issues,

4. opposed anti-abortion laws in multiple states, while conservative Supreme Court justices have implied that Roe vs. Wade will be overturned in 2022.   This has united core Republican constituencies.  It has not brought any significant surge in Democratic Party support, despite the fact that significant majorities of the American public support Roe vs. Wade,

Public perceptions are commonly that:

1. Democrats are weak on the economy,

2. Biden is a weak, ineffectual leader,

3. Democrats - including Biden are elitest, supporting big city liberals, and not most others,

4. Democrats - including Biden - support national control of public education which pushes CRT (Critical Race Theory). CRT is a nuanced conceptual view that racism is a systemic problem that should be dealt with in public schools.   CRT is used in some college level education, and is hardly focused upon in public schools,

5. Democrats want to increase taxation for working (middle and lower income) people, while Republicans repeatedly cut taxation rates, most significantly helping wealthy people,

6. Buzz-words like:  "big government", "socialist", "Black Lives Matter", "Defund the Police" ,  and "woke" reflect a radical left Democratic Party. 

The 2021-2022 economic recovery has not helped many people who are not upper-middle class to wealthy!   It has disproportionality helped wealthy people and hurt poorer people.

So What Should be Next in 2022?

Biden Approval Rating as of mid-January, 2022:

The trends on Biden’s job approval

• Forty percent of voters approve of Biden’s job performance, while 56 percent disapprove, record lows and highs, respectively, from nearly 50 Morning Consult/Politico surveys conducted since he took office.
• The majority of Democratic voters (78 percent) approve of Biden, but that support is weak: 34 percent “strongly approve” of his job performance, a record low that is down 6 percentage points over the course of a week and down 15 points since the beginning of December.
• At 91 percent, Republican voters are nearly united in their disapproval of Biden’s work in office, while 59 percent of independents disapprove. Both figures are largely consistent with findings from the past two months
• -- https://morningconsult.com/2022/01/19/bidens-approval-record-low-near-one-year-in-office/

The Democrats are likely to do poorly in the 2022 elections if his Democratic voter support continues to be weak as well as if close to 59% of independents continue to disapprove of his job performance.  

The Democratic Party vote often is a balancing act!   "Moderate" and "liberal" voters often have divergent priorities.   Voters are disproportional BIPOC (Black, Indigenous and People of Color).   Such voters tend to strongly favor a focus upon ending racism.  They also are significantly affected by key economic issues.  Moderate white voters often are less comfortable with focusing upon racism.   If Black turnout is low, due to discontent with Biden (and the Democrats), electing Democratic Party House and Senate members becomes significantly more difficult.

The Democrats and Joe Biden can not afford to presume that the House January 6th Committee will produce results before November which will, in of themselves, result in Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress.

Little substantive legislation is likely to pass in 2022.   Republicans, with current filibuster rules remaining intact (due to resistance from Senators Manchin and Sinema), will stop any legislation that will help potential Democratic Party votes in 2022.

The Democrats need to seriously change perceptions of themselves between now and around July-August, if they wish to have realistic chances of having a majority in both Houses in 2022.   It seems unlikely that they will be able to convince significant numbers of independent voters and highly motivate Democratic Party voters primarily with a new positive image.   

The "facts" are not seeming to be enough!   Imaging - Feelings - are what matter!

To gain significant voter approval, Democrats are going to need to help change the image of Republicans.   It seems doubtful that court difficulties of most notable Republicans like DT and Matt Gaetz will change many potential voters' minds.   

Though it is challenging, I think that the Democrats are going to need to (finally) confront things like systemic racism in limited, clear ways.    They are going to need to contrast the positive relationships that Democrats have with people who are both white and BIPOC.  They are going to need to effectively contrast themselves with how unfair and wrong Republicans are in playing up racial divisions and other things creating divisiveness.    Mixed in with this, of course, will be confronting "class warfare" and effectively showing how Republicans are hurting all who aren't rich.   

They will also need to confront "The 'C' Word" - Christianity.    Contrasting the "Caring Jesus" with a Christianity of - exclusion and divisiveness is important!   Those who are offended - with an effectively expressed message - weren't potentially Democratic Party voters to begin with.

Democrats are going to need to focus clearly upon the feelings of those they wish to reach and motivate.   

It won't be easy!

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